MISSBrier 0.548

SPY closed on March 19 at $659.80 and March 20 at $648.57, both well above the $510 target. While SPY did decline during the March 19 convergence window (direction correct), it never came close to closing below $510 on any trading day. The prediction required at least 2 days below $510 during the convergence window, which did not occur.

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Market

SPY will close below 510 on at least 2 trading days during the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence window as Iran Assessment dynamics create market volatility

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 74% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.548.

Derived from: SPY RSI at 38.5 with bearish momentum in risk-off regime, combined with March 19 Vernal Equinox + Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence (intensity 3/5) affecting energy and defense sectors

Probability: 74%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 21192d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2.5% within 30 days as risk-off conditions pressure cyclical sectors

market69%PARTIAL

IEFA (iShares Core MSCI EAFE) will decline more than 3% during the 30-day period ending April 6 as international markets underperform in risk-off environment

market71%HIT

XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 21

market64%PARTIAL

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SPY will close below 510 on at least 2 trading days during the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence window as Iran Assessment dynamics create market volatility

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