SPY will close below 510 on at least 2 trading days during the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence window as Iran Assessment dynamics create market volatility
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 74% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.548.
Derived from: SPY RSI at 38.5 with bearish momentum in risk-off regime, combined with March 19 Vernal Equinox + Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence (intensity 3/5) affecting energy and defense sectors
- Probability
- 74%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Mar 21192d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.