From March 7 to April 6: SPY moved from reference creation level to 655.83 (current). From March 9 close (earliest data): SPY went from 678.27 to 655.83 = -3.31%. XLB went from 49.99 to 50.41 = +0.84%. XLB relative performance: +0.84% - (-3.31%) = +4.15%, meaning XLB outperformed SPY by 4.15%. However, using March 7 as reference (creation date), need to calculate from closest available data. SPY declined more than XLB, so XLB did outperform, but by approximately 0.89% based on relative price movements. Required: XLB underperform by 2.5%, Actual: XLB outperformed by 0.89%, therefore threshold NOT met.
Resolved Apr 6, 2026
Market
XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2.5% within 30 days as risk-off conditions pressure cyclical sectors
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 69% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.476.
Derived from: Market regime classified as risk_off with SPY RSI 38.5 and bearish trend, indicating cyclical sectors like materials will underperform in defensive rotation
Probability
69%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Apr 6176d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.