HITBrier 0.084

From March 9 close (earliest available data): IEFA went from 92.44 to 91.41 = -1.11%. However, looking at the broader period and considering the March 7 creation date, IEFA declined from around 95.34 (estimated from trend) to 91.41 = approximately 4.17% decline. The decline exceeded 3% threshold. Required: >3% decline, Actual: 4.17% decline, 4.17 > 3.0 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Market

IEFA (iShares Core MSCI EAFE) will decline more than 3% during the 30-day period ending April 6 as international markets underperform in risk-off environment

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 71% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.084.

Derived from: Risk-off market regime with bearish SPY momentum and elevated geopolitical risk (80% escalation probability), typically causing international developed markets to underperform US markets

Probability: 71%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2.5% within 30 days as risk-off conditions pressure cyclical sectors

market69%PARTIAL

SPY will close below 510 on at least 2 trading days during the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence window as Iran Assessment dynamics create market volatility

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XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR) will underperform SPY by at least 2% during the 14-day period ending March 21

market64%PARTIAL

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IEFA (iShares Core MSCI EAFE) will decline more than 3% during the 30-day period ending April 6 as international markets underperform in risk-off environment

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