IWM will close below 225.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as small-cap domestic exposure amplifies supply chain disruption effects

NEXUS forecast made 2026-06-05 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-19. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: IWM at $239.61 with high volatility (ATR 5.74) and bearish MACD histogram -0.482. SELL IWM trading action supports downside bias. Small-caps more vulnerable to wartime supply chain disruptions than large-caps. Reference class 'day_count/market' 45% base rate, adjusted down for directional bias and wartime amplification effects.

Probability

10%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Jun 19102d ago

Made

Jun 5

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.