MISSBrier 0.003

Data-resolved: IWM moved from 293.48 to 292.91 (-0.19%) during 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-28. Target: below 230. Target not reached. Low was 290.17.

Resolved Jul 28, 2026

Market

SHORT correctIWM

IWM will close below $230.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the distinct small-cap volatility regime (ATR 5.74) and bearish MACD (-0.482) extend the current sell-off beyond large-caps.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-14 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-07-28. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: SELL IWM trading action (55% conf, bearish trend + high ATR) and thesis note that IWM's chaotic sell-off is distinct from an orderly large-cap decline.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Jul 2863d ago
Made: Jul 14

Price Target$230

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Small-cap ETF IWM will close below $220.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market5%MISS

IWM will close below 225.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as small-cap domestic exposure amplifies supply chain disruption effects

market10%MISS

Small-cap ETF IWM will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market27%MISS

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IWM will close below $230.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the distinct small-cap volatility regime (ATR 5.74) and bearish MACD (-0.482) extend the current sell-off beyond large-caps.

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