MISSBrier 0.003

Data-resolved: IWM moved from 299.77 to 301.72 (0.65%) during 2026-08-06 to 2026-08-20. Target: below 220. Target not reached. Low was 297.95.

Resolved Aug 20, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongIWM

Small-cap ETF IWM will close below $220.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-06 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-20. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: distinct small-cap volatility regime flagged in thesis (ATR 5.74, bearish MACD -0.482) and confirmed SELL IWM trading action citing bearish trend with elevated volatility, distinguishing IWM's more chaotic sell-off from large-cap technical fear.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 2040d ago
Made: Aug 6

Price Target$220

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IWM will close below $230.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the distinct small-cap volatility regime (ATR 5.74) and bearish MACD (-0.482) extend the current sell-off beyond large-caps.

market5%MISS

Small-cap ETF IWM will underperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days.

market27%MISS

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) will close above $300.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market36%MISS

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Small-cap ETF IWM will close below $220.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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