PARTIALBrier 0.518

Data-resolved: IWM moved from 253.62 to 242.22 (-4.49%) during 2026-03-09 to 2026-03-23. Target: below 200. Target not reached. Low was 240.33.

Resolved Mar 23, 2026

Market

SHORT correctIWM

Russell 2000 (IWM) will close below 200 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as elevated geopolitical risk (80% escalation score) creates small-cap underperformance in defensive rotation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-23. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: 80% geopolitical escalation risk score with Fear/Greed at 30 suggests defensive positioning favors large caps over small caps. Small caps typically underperform during geopolitical stress periods.

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 23190d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$200

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IWM (Russell 2000) will close below $235 on at least 3 trading days within 7 days as small-cap volatility regime (ATR 5.74) combines with wartime supply chain disruptions hitting domestic-focused companies hardest

market61%MISS

IWM will close below 225.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as small-cap domestic exposure amplifies supply chain disruption effects

market10%MISS

IWM will close below $230.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the distinct small-cap volatility regime (ATR 5.74) and bearish MACD (-0.482) extend the current sell-off beyond large-caps.

market

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Russell 2000 (IWM) will close below 200 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as elevated geopolitical risk (80% escalation score) creates small-cap underperformance in defensive rotation

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