MISSBrier 0.371

Data-resolved: IWM moved from 239.61 to 252.36 (5.32%) during 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-07. Target: below 235. Target not reached. Low was 242.24.

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongIWM

IWM (Russell 2000) will close below $235 on at least 3 trading days within 7 days as small-cap volatility regime (ATR 5.74) combines with wartime supply chain disruptions hitting domestic-focused companies hardest

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-31 at 61% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.371.

Derived from: IWM current price $239.61 with high volatility ATR 5.74 and MACD histogram -0.482. Wartime regime creates disproportionate impact on small-caps vs large-caps due to supply chain vulnerability. SELL IWM trading action at 55% confidence provides directional support.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 31

Price Target$235

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russell 2000 (IWM) will close below 200 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as elevated geopolitical risk (80% escalation score) creates small-cap underperformance in defensive rotation

market72%PARTIAL

IWM will close below 225.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as small-cap domestic exposure amplifies supply chain disruption effects

market10%MISS

IWM will close below $230.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the distinct small-cap volatility regime (ATR 5.74) and bearish MACD (-0.482) extend the current sell-off beyond large-caps.

market

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IWM (Russell 2000) will close below $235 on at least 3 trading days within 7 days as small-cap volatility regime (ATR 5.74) combines with wartime supply chain disruptions hitting domestic-focused companies hardest

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