The US Department of Energy will announce a release of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by November 23, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-24 at 30% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-23.

The OPEC+ game-theory outcome pairs a Saudi production cut with a US reserve release; the custom US Midterm Energy Signaling Bayesian scenario also identifies reserve releases as a likely US strategy. Neither establishes that a release has been decided.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 23in 30d
Made: Oct 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

A NATO x Russia military clash will occur by October 31, 2026.

geopolitical5%

Chinese military aircraft will cross the Taiwan Strait median line on at least one day by November 6, 2026.

geopolitical12%

Russia will launch a missile or drone strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure by November 6, 2026.

geopolitical52%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

North Korea will conduct an ICBM test launch by November 5, 2026.

geopolitical22%

The US Department of Energy will announce a release of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by November 23, 2026.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture