Derived from: China PLA actor intelligence describing sustained pressure around Taiwan and the Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis, which assigns 53% escalation probability and identifies gray-zone escalation as its fragile equilibrium.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 6in 14d
Made: Oct 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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