North Korea will conduct an ICBM test launch by November 5, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-22 at 22% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-05.

Derived from: the North Korea Provocation Cycle game-theory scenario, whose most likely outcome specifies a DPRK ICBM launch. The supporting actor-intelligence update is dated May, limiting near-term confidence.

Probability: 22%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 5in 13d
Made: Oct 22

Price Target$5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed ICBM test launch within 14 days

geopolitical85%MISS

North Korea will conduct a new missile test (SRBM, cruise, or ICBM) within 7 days.

geopolitical67%HIT

North Korea will conduct a new confirmed missile launch (short-range, medium-range, or ICBM) within 14 days.

geopolitical70%HIT

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North Korea will conduct at least one additional short-range ballistic missile, artillery, or naval provocation (distinct from long-range/ICBM tests) within 14 days.

geopolitical77%EXPIRED

North Korea will conduct an ICBM test launch by November 5, 2026.

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