Russia will launch a missile or drone strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure by November 6, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-23 at 52% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-06.

Derived from: the active Russia-Ukraine war and the Russia Kremlin actor-intelligence entry describing an aggressive military posture. The Bayesian war-endgame analysis assigns 36% escalation probability; its negotiation scenario does not establish a ceasefire.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 6in 14d
Made: Oct 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Chinese military aircraft will cross the Taiwan Strait median line on at least one day by November 6, 2026.

geopolitical12%

North Korea will conduct an ICBM test launch by November 5, 2026.

geopolitical22%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

geopolitical31%