Derived from: the November 3 midterm-election signal and the knowledge-bank entry on 2025–2026 US redistricting. The redistricting uncertainty warrants a probability below the crowd's 93% YES price.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 4in 12d
Made: Oct 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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