Derived from: the active wartime Middle East assessment and the Israel-related actor-intelligence entries. Neither establishes the leadership outcome, so this is a limited-confidence view above the crowd's 31% YES price.

Probability: 31%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Oct 28in 5d
Made: Oct 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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