HITBrier 0.434

Early-confirmed: USD/MXN hit target above 17.05 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 17.11 (started at 16.88).

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSD/MXN

USD/MXN will trade above 17.05 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 34% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.434.

Wartime risk-off capital flows and a confirmed Fed hawkish hold combine with broad EM currency vulnerability (mirroring confirmed USD/KRW spike patterns) to pressure the peso beyond its current 16.88 level.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$17.05

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/MXN will decline at least 1% (peso strengthens) on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $16.76, 1% from $16.93 at creation)

market32%MISS

USD/MXN will trade above 17.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market37%HIT

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will weaken above 18.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts drive energy import costs higher while risk-off positioning pressures emerging market currencies

market53%MISS

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USD/MXN will trade above 17.05 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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