HITBrier 0.400

Early-confirmed: USD/MXN hit target above 17.6 on 2026-09-23, 2026-09-24. Current price: 17.69 (started at 17.23).

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSD/MXN

USD/MXN will trade above 17.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 37% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.400.

Broad risk-off regime and dollar safe-haven demand amid wartime escalation (80% geopolitical escalation score) typically pressures EM currencies including the peso; distinct threshold and timeframe from existing USD/MXN coverage.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 1in 2d
Made: Sep 17

Price Target$17.6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/MXN will decline at least 1% (peso strengthens) on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $16.76, 1% from $16.93 at creation)

market32%MISS

USD/MXN will trade above 17.05 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market34%HIT

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will weaken above 18.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts drive energy import costs higher while risk-off positioning pressures emerging market currencies

market53%MISS

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USD/MXN will trade above 17.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days

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