MISSBrier 0.103

Data-resolved: USD/MXN moved from 16.93 to 17.22 (1.71%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: below 16.76. Target not reached. Low was 16.87.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongUSD/MXN

USD/MXN will decline at least 1% (peso strengthens) on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $16.76, 1% from $16.93 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 32% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.103.

Divergent catalyst from prior wartime risk-off currency stress: Fed hawkish-hold rate differential (Bayesian Fed equilibrium bearish/hawkish outcome) supports carry-trade demand for MXN even amid broader risk-off flows.

Probability: 32%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$16.76

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/MXN will trade above 17.05 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market34%HIT

USD/MXN will trade above 17.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market37%HIT

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will weaken above 18.50 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts drive energy import costs higher while risk-off positioning pressures emerging market currencies

market53%MISS

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USD/MXN will decline at least 1% (peso strengthens) on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $16.76, 1% from $16.93 at creation)

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