MISSBrier 0.145

Data-resolved: UUP moved from 27.98 to 28.65 (2.39%) during 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-24. Target: below 27.6. Target not reached. Low was 27.99.

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongUUP

UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) will close below $27.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 38% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.145.

Confirmed pattern of dollar depreciation against traditional safe havens during wartime risk-off (USD/CHF broke below 0.80, USD/JPY broke below 153 in prior confirmed windows) suggests capital is rotating to CHF/JPY/gold rather than USD, pressuring the dollar index lower despite hawkish Fed expectations.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$27.6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UUP will close above $28.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market39%MISS

UUP (US Dollar Bullish ETF) will close above $28.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market18%MISS

Dollar proxy ETF UUP will close above $28.45 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market60%MISS

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UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish Fund) will close at least 2% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $28.96)

market76%

UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) will close below $27.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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