Fed Rate Cycle Nash equilibrium points to 'Hawkish hold + guidance' (bearish for risk assets, confidence 55%) combined with wartime risk-off flows historically supporting dollar strength as a safe-haven counterpart to gold.

Probability: 76%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 20in 21d
Made: Sep 20

Price Target$28.96

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Dollar proxy ETF UUP will close above $28.45 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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