MISSBrier 0.152

Data-resolved: UUP moved from 28.08 to 28.48 (1.42%) during 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-22. Target: above 28.5. Target not reached. High was 28.48.

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

LONG correctUUP

UUP will close above $28.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.152.

Wartime risk-off dollar-safe-haven flows plus the Fed Rate Cycle Nash equilibrium ('Hawkish hold + guidance', bearish for risk assets) support continued dollar strength from the current $28.08 level, distinct from prior USD/CHF and USD/KRW predictions already resolved.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$28.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) will close below $27.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market38%MISS

Dollar proxy ETF UUP will close above $28.45 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market60%MISS

UUP (US Dollar Bullish ETF) will close above $28.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market18%MISS

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UUP will close above $28.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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