MISSBrier 0.032

Data-resolved: UUP moved from 28.07 to 28.62 (1.96%) during 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-26. Target: above 28.8. Target not reached. High was 28.74.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

LONG correctUUP

UUP (US Dollar Bullish ETF) will close above $28.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.032.

Wartime risk-off capital flows and confirmed prior USD/CHF safe-haven strengthening pattern support continued broad dollar demand as global escalation risk (80% score) persists into the UNGA/October-anniversary window.

Probability: 18%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Price Target$28.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) will close below $27.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market38%MISS

UUP will close above $28.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market39%MISS

Dollar proxy ETF UUP will close above $28.45 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market60%MISS

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UUP (US Dollar Bullish ETF) will close above $28.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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