MISSBrier 0.354

Data-resolved: UUP moved from 28.08 to 28.39 (1.10%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 28.45. Target not reached. High was 28.48.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctUUP

Dollar proxy ETF UUP will close above $28.45 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 60% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.354.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot model shows zero stable equilibria and a bearish-leaning 'hawkish hold + guidance / volatility hedging' scenario (55% confidence), supporting continued dollar strength consistent with the confirmed July hawkish hold.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$28.45

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UUP will close above $28.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market39%MISS

UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) will close below $27.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market38%MISS

UUP (US Dollar Bullish ETF) will close above $28.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market18%MISS

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Dollar proxy ETF UUP will close above $28.45 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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