HITBrier 0.085

Early-confirmed: XLU, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-01 through 2026-10-31. Target: above 40.03. Target hit on: 2026-10-06. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Market

LONGXLU

XLU will close above $40.03 on at least one trading day by October 31, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-01 at 71% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.085.

Derived from: the risk-off thesis and XLU's $39.44 reference price. The Fed game's hawkish-hold outcome is a countervailing risk for rate-sensitive utilities.

Probability: 71%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 31in 18d
Made: Oct 1

Price Target$40.03

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLU will close below $40.70 on at least one trading day within 30 days as a Fed hawkish-hold outcome pressures rate-sensitive utility valuations.

market41%HIT

XLU will close above $43.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR) will close above $43.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market47%MISS

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XLU will close above $40.03 on at least one trading day by October 31, 2026.

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