COP will close at least 3% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 5, 2026 (target above $150.04, 3% from $145.67 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-22 at 53% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-05.

Derived from: the Bayesian Hormuz-crisis assessment's 67% escalation probability and the active thesis's oil-supply risk. No chokepoint closure is established, and the technical oil entry has only 45% action confidence.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 5in 13d
Made: Oct 22

Price Target$150.04

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

COP will close at least 3% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 10, 2026 (target above $138.12, 3% from $134.10 at creation)

market65%HIT

ConocoPhillips (COP) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as wartime oil-risk pricing intensifies around the Strait of Hormuz (target above $135.18, 6% from $127.53 at creation)

market47%MISS

ConocoPhillips (COP) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $142.32, 6% from $134.26 at creation)

market

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COP will close at least 3% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 5, 2026 (target above $150.04, 3% from $145.67 at creation)

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