HITBrier 0.205

Early-confirmed: QQQ, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-08 through 2026-10-22. Target: below 748. Target hit on: 2026-10-12. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Market

SHORTQQQ

QQQ will close below $748.00 on at least one trading day by October 22, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-08 at 55% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-13. Brier score 0.205.

The quantitative layer classifies the market as risk-off with elevated volatility, while the supplied QQQ reference price is $757.73. QQQ's bullish RSI and MACD readings are contrary evidence and temper confidence.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 22in 9d
Made: Oct 8

Price Target$748

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

QQQ will close above $752.00 on at least one trading day within 7 days

market81%MISS

QQQ will close above $750.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as oversold RSI (28.4) triggers a technical mean-reversion bounce.

market85%HIT

QQQ will close below $705.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%HIT

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QQQ will close below $748.00 on at least one trading day by October 22, 2026.

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