HITBrier 0.221

Early-confirmed: MSTR, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-05 through 2026-10-19. Target: below 153.61. Target hit on: 2026-10-07. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Market

SHORTMSTR

MSTR will close at least 4% below its October 5, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by October 19, 2026 (target below $153.61, 4% from $160.01 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-05 at 53% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-08. Brier score 0.221.

The active thesis calls the regime risk-off with elevated volatility; its supplied BTC reference price of $85,995.84 provides a crypto-market anchor for this distinct equity claim.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 19in 5d
Made: Oct 5

Price Target$153.61

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $158.39, 6% from $168.50 at creation)

market82%HIT

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $166.23, 8% from $153.92 at creation)

market83%HIT

MSTR (MicroStrategy) will close at least 8% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $154.22, 8% from $142.80 at creation)

market37%

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MSTR will close at least 4% below its October 5, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by October 19, 2026 (target below $153.61, 4% from $160.01 at creation)

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