MISSBrier 0.103

Data-resolved: USDJPY moved from 157.63 to 159.32 (1.07%) during 2026-08-02 to 2026-08-16. Target: above 160. Target not reached. High was 159.57.

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSDJPY

USD/JPY will trade above 160.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as yen safe-haven demand fails to materialize despite wartime risk-off conditions, continuing the pattern observed in the prior denied yen-strengthening prediction.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-02 at 32% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-16. Brier score 0.103.

Derived from: prior denied prediction showing USD/JPY failed to break below 150 despite risk-off thesis (moved 162.40 to 157.45), suggesting yen safe-haven flows are structurally weak; current level ~157.45 leaves room for continued weakening.

Probability: 32%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 1644d ago
Made: Aug 2

Price Target$160

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/JPY will decline below 150.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as broad wartime risk-off flows and the 80% geopolitical escalation risk score drive safe-haven demand into the yen.

market5%MISS

USD/JPY will trade above 162.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold combined with the yen's repeated failure to sustain safe-haven strength (denied in two prior windows) extends dollar-yen upside.

market34%MISS

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) will weaken above 160.00 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% forces Japan to choose between energy security and regional stability, creating currency pressure

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USD/JPY will trade above 160.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as yen safe-haven demand fails to materialize despite wartime risk-off conditions, continuing the pattern observed in the prior denied yen-strengthening prediction.

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