USD/JPY will decline below 150.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as broad wartime risk-off flows and the 80% geopolitical escalation risk score drive safe-haven demand into the yen.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-18 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-01. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: confirmed wartime risk-off regime, 80% escalation risk score, and Taiwan Strait Bayesian fragile stability (30% coalition stability) creating region-adjacent safe-haven yen demand independent of a direct Taiwan-specific catalyst.

Probability

5%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Aug 159d ago

Made

Jul 18

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.