MISSBrier 0.115

Data-resolved: USDJPY moved from 156.34 to 157.24 (0.57%) during 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-18. Target: above 162. Target not reached. High was 156.85.

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSDJPY

USD/JPY will trade above 162.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold combined with the yen's repeated failure to sustain safe-haven strength (denied in two prior windows) extends dollar-yen upside.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-04 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.115.

Derived from: confirmed Fed hawkish hold (100% resolved), prior denied yen-strengthening predictions (USD/JPY failed to break below 150 and above 160 in earlier windows, showing persistent dollar-yen upward drift toward 159-160), Fed Rate Cycle bearish equilibrium

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 1811d ago
Made: Sep 4

Price Target$162

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/JPY will trade above 160.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as yen safe-haven demand fails to materialize despite wartime risk-off conditions, continuing the pattern observed in the prior denied yen-strengthening prediction.

market32%MISS

USD/JPY will decline below 150.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as broad wartime risk-off flows and the 80% geopolitical escalation risk score drive safe-haven demand into the yen.

market5%MISS

Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) will weaken above 160.00 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% forces Japan to choose between energy security and regional stability, creating currency pressure

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USD/JPY will trade above 162.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold combined with the yen's repeated failure to sustain safe-haven strength (denied in two prior windows) extends dollar-yen upside.

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