Japanese Government Bonds (TLT proxy for JGB behavior) will outperform German Bunds by at least 1.5% within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% drives safe-haven flows to Japan's defensive positioning
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.176.
Derived from: Bayesian game theory analysis showing Taiwan Strait escalation probability at 53% with fragile equilibrium, creating regional safe-haven demand for Japanese assets despite energy vulnerabilities
- Probability
- 42%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Apr 2180d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .