MISSBrier 0.176

TLT performance March 19-April 2: Started at 87.49 (March 19 close), ended at 86.26 (April 2). Return = ((86.26-87.49)/87.49)*100 = -1.41%. EWG (German proxy) performance same period: Started at 39.69 (March 19 close), ended at 40.2 (April 2). Return = ((40.2-39.69)/39.69)*100 = +1.28%. Relative performance = TLT return - EWG return = -1.41% - 1.28% = -2.69%. Actual: -2.69%, Required: +1.5%, -2.69% < +1.5% therefore threshold NOT met. TLT underperformed by 2.69%.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Market

LONG wrongTLT

Japanese Government Bonds (TLT proxy for JGB behavior) will outperform German Bunds by at least 1.5% within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% drives safe-haven flows to Japan's defensive positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.176.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory analysis showing Taiwan Strait escalation probability at 53% with fragile equilibrium, creating regional safe-haven demand for Japanese assets despite energy vulnerabilities

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

The Federal Reserve will communicate a hawkish hold (no rate cut, guidance emphasizing persistent inflation risk) at its next policy communication within 30 days.

geopolitical23%HIT

Long-duration Treasury ETF TLT will outperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as wartime safe-haven rotation continues.

market15%MISS

Long-duration Treasury ETF TLT will close below $79.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (with three dissenting votes favoring a hike) sustains upward pressure on long-term yields despite wartime risk-off conditions.

market

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Japanese Government Bonds (TLT proxy for JGB behavior) will outperform German Bunds by at least 1.5% within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% drives safe-haven flows to Japan's defensive positioning

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