TLT will close below $76.80 on at least one trading day by November 10, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-11 at 69% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-10.

The U.S. Treasury Supply Crisis game-theory scenario pairs front-loaded bill issuance with investors demanding a higher term premium. The $76.80 threshold is about 1.5% below TLT's supplied $77.98 reference price; wartime safe-haven demand is a countervailing risk.

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 10in 27d
Made: Oct 11

Price Target$76.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

TLT will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%HIT

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $81.62 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market85%MISS

TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $79.30, 3% from $81.75 at creation)

market85%HIT

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TLT will close below $80.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%MISS

TLT will close below $76.80 on at least one trading day by November 10, 2026.

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