USD/MXN will trade above 18.65.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-21 at 61% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-04.

The quantitative layer's risk-off assessment supports a modest dollar-over-peso move. The target is approximately 0.7% above the supplied USD/MXN reference of 18.52.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 4in 14d
Made: Oct 21

Price Target$18.65

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/MXN will trade above 18.43 by October 16, 2026.

market61%HIT

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will trade above 19.50 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as NAFTA trade vulnerabilities and risk-off dollar strength create emerging market currency pressure

market58%MISS

The Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) will strengthen below 17.50 within 14 days as risk-off dollar flows compete with Mexico's relative regional stability and energy export benefits from Hormuz tensions

market48%MISS

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USD/MXN will trade above 18.65.

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