HITBrier 0.103

Early-confirmed: WMT, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-02 through 2026-11-01. Target: above 106.35. Target hit on: 2026-10-06. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Market

LONGWMT

WMT will close at least 2% above its October 2, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by November 1, 2026 (target above $106.35, 2% from $104.26 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-02 at 68% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.103.

The active thesis identifies a risk-off market regime. A gain in a defensive retailer is a specific test of rotation away from higher-beta equities.

Probability: 68%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 1in 19d
Made: Oct 2

Price Target$106.35

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $104.36, 3% from $107.59 at creation)

market83%HIT

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $109.93, 3% from $106.73 at creation)

market85%HIT

Walmart (WMT) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $111.43, 4% from $107.14 at creation)

market52%MISS

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

WMT will close at least 2% above its October 2, 2026 reference price on at least one trading day by November 1, 2026 (target above $106.35, 2% from $104.26 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture