NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) will close below $590 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability (67%) creates semiconductor supply chain fears despite current market complacency

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 37% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-23. Brier score 0.391.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory analysis shows Strait of Hormuz Crisis escalation probability at 67% with dominant Iranian calculating type (30%). Taiwan Strait semiconductor supply disruption risk scenario at 20% probability. Current QQQ not covered in pending predictions. Wartime regime classification with market neutrality (Fear/Greed 50) creates dangerous divergence.

Probability

37%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

Mar 26187d ago

Made

Mar 19

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.