FedEx (FDX) will close at least 3% below its October 1 price on at least one trading day by October 31, 2026 (target below $276.54, 3% from $285.09 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-01 at 64% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-31.

Derived from: the risk-off thesis and the Red Sea Shipping Crisis game-theory scenario, which describes continuing Houthi support and naval convoy escorts rather than a resolved shipping disruption.

Probability: 64%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 31in 18d
Made: Oct 1

Price Target$276.54

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $279.84, 4% from $291.50 at creation)

market81%HIT

FedEx (FDX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $296.39, 5% from $311.99 at creation)

market35%HIT

FDX (FedEx) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $309.62, 4% from $322.52 at creation)

market38%HIT

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FedEx (FDX) will close at least 3% below its October 1 price on at least one trading day by October 31, 2026 (target below $276.54, 3% from $285.09 at creation)

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