Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-27 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-28.

Derived from: crowd market [2100981], priced at 27% YES. This forecast assigns a modestly higher probability.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 1 day
Deadline: Oct 28in 1d
Made: Oct 27

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will impose a new tariff on semiconductor imports from China by November 26, 2026.

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France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

geopolitical8%

The US Treasury will raise its estimate of privately held net marketable borrowing for October–December 2026 in its November financing announcement, relative to its preceding estimate.

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Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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