The United States will impose a new tariff on semiconductor imports from China by November 26, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-27 at 27% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-26.

Derived from: the Bayesian US–China Trade War assessment reports a collapsed bargaining range, although its 0% near-term escalation estimate limits confidence.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 26in 30d
Made: Oct 27

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

geopolitical8%

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

geopolitical28%

The US Treasury will raise its estimate of privately held net marketable borrowing for October–December 2026 in its November financing announcement, relative to its preceding estimate.

geopolitical38%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

The United States will impose a new tariff on semiconductor imports from China by November 26, 2026.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture