France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-27 at 8% probability. Pending, resolves by 2027-01-01.

Derived from: crowd market [5880782], priced at 8% YES. No corroborating French emergency signal is supplied, so the difference from the crowd is small.

Probability: 8%
Timeframe: 66 days
Deadline: Jan 1in 66d
Made: Oct 27

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

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