HITBrier 0.143

Early-confirmed: UUP, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-07 through 2026-10-21. Target: above 29.05. Target hit on: 2026-10-12. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Market

LONGUUP

UUP will close above $29.05 on at least one trading day by October 21, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-07 at 62% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-13. Brier score 0.143.

Derived from: the risk-off thesis and the Fed game-theory scenario of a hawkish hold with market hedging; UUP's reference price is $28.90.

Probability: 62%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 21in 7d
Made: Oct 7

Price Target$29.05

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish Fund) will close at least 2% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target above $28.96)

market76%HIT

UUP (US Dollar Bullish ETF) will close above $28.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market18%MISS

UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) will close below $27.60 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market38%MISS

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UUP will close above $29.05 on at least one trading day by October 21, 2026.

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