Houthi forces will launch a missile or armed drone at a U.S. Navy ship in the Red Sea by November 27, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-28 at 30% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-27.

The Red Sea shipping-crisis game-theory scenario pairs continued Houthi support with U.S. naval convoy escorts. A strike aimed at a Navy ship is a distinct, more speculative event than the pending merchant-vessel strike claim.

Probability

30%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Nov 27in 28d

Made

Oct 28

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.