A Russian missile or drone strike will damage an electricity-generation facility in Ukraine by November 11, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-28 at 17% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-11.

The active thesis identifies the Russia–Ukraine war as ongoing. The Bayesian Russia–Ukraine analysis assigns 36% escalation probability; its negotiation equilibrium does not establish a settlement or end current strikes.

Probability: 17%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 11in 12d
Made: Oct 28

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Houthi forces will launch a missile or armed drone at a U.S. Navy ship in the Red Sea by November 27, 2026.

geopolitical30%

Hezbollah will fire at least one rocket across the Lebanon–Israel border by November 12, 2026.

geopolitical28%

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

geopolitical8%

The United States will impose a new tariff on semiconductor imports from China by November 26, 2026.

geopolitical27%

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Track Record

Geopolitical

Pending

A Russian missile or drone strike will damage an electricity-generation facility in Ukraine by November 11, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-28 at 17% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-11.

Probability: 17%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 11in 12d
Made: Oct 28

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Houthi forces will launch a missile or armed drone at a U.S. Navy ship in the Red Sea by November 27, 2026.

geopolitical30%

Hezbollah will fire at least one rocket across the Lebanon–Israel border by November 12, 2026.

geopolitical28%

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

geopolitical8%

The United States will impose a new tariff on semiconductor imports from China by November 26, 2026.

geopolitical27%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

A Russian missile or drone strike will damage an electricity-generation facility in Ukraine by November 11, 2026.

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See the full intelligence picture

A Russian missile or drone strike will damage an electricity-generation facility in Ukraine by November 11, 2026.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture