Hezbollah will fire at least one rocket across the Lebanon–Israel border by November 12, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-29 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-12.

Derived from: the Hezbollah actor-intelligence entries describing sustained rocket attacks and active conflict with Israel. Their age limits confidence in the near-term forecast.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 12in 14d
Made: Oct 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Houthi forces will launch a missile or armed drone at a U.S. Navy ship in the Red Sea by November 27, 2026.

geopolitical30%

A Russian missile or drone strike will damage an electricity-generation facility in Ukraine by November 11, 2026.

geopolitical17%

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

geopolitical8%

The United States will impose a new tariff on semiconductor imports from China by November 26, 2026.

geopolitical27%

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Track Record

Geopolitical

Pending

Hezbollah will fire at least one rocket across the Lebanon–Israel border by November 12, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-29 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-12.

Derived from: the Hezbollah actor-intelligence entries describing sustained rocket attacks and active conflict with Israel. Their age limits confidence in the near-term forecast.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 12in 14d
Made: Oct 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Houthi forces will launch a missile or armed drone at a U.S. Navy ship in the Red Sea by November 27, 2026.

geopolitical30%

A Russian missile or drone strike will damage an electricity-generation facility in Ukraine by November 11, 2026.

geopolitical17%

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

geopolitical8%

The United States will impose a new tariff on semiconductor imports from China by November 26, 2026.

geopolitical27%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Hezbollah will fire at least one rocket across the Lebanon–Israel border by November 12, 2026.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture

Hezbollah will fire at least one rocket across the Lebanon–Israel border by November 12, 2026.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture