IEF will close below $88.50 on at least one trading day by November 6, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-07 at 73% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-06.

Derived from: the US Treasury Supply Crisis game-theory outcome in which investors demand higher term premiums; IEF's reference price is $89.13. Wartime safe-haven demand is a countervailing risk.

Probability: 73%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 6in 24d
Made: Oct 7

Price Target$88.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close below $89.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market75%HIT

IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF) will close above $93.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market53%MISS

The Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical44%EXPIRED

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IEF will close below $88.50 on at least one trading day by November 6, 2026.

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