HITBrier 0.077

Early-confirmed: IWM, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-10-10 through 2026-10-24. Target: below 277.5. Target hit on: 2026-10-13. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Market

SHORTIWM

IWM will close below $277.50 on at least one trading day by October 24, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-10 at 72% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-10-14. Brier score 0.077.

Derived from: the active thesis's risk-off regime and elevated-volatility assessment, against an IWM reference price of $278.94.

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 10d
Made: Oct 10

Price Target$277.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

IWM will close above $286.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market81%MISS

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) will close below $280.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market85%HIT

IWM will close below $285.50 on at least one trading day within 7 days.

market43%HIT

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IWM will close below $277.50 on at least one trading day by October 24, 2026.

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