EUR/USD will trade below 1.1120 by November 9, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-26 at 62% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-09.

Derived from: the risk-off thesis and the Fed Rate Cycle Pivot scenario's hawkish-hold outcome, which together favor modest dollar strength. The target is roughly 0.7% below the 1.12 reference rate.

Probability: 62%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 9in 14d
Made: Oct 26

Price Target$1.112

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EUR/USD will trade below 1.1120 by November 9, 2026.

market67%HIT

EUR/USD will trade below 1.14 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (July meeting, three dissents favoring a hike) sustains dollar strength against the euro amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

market37%MISS

EUR/USD will trade within a tight 1.08–1.12 range on every trading day within 14 days, reflecting the ECB's active reinforcement of euro stability narratives under Lagarde despite the broader wartime risk-off backdrop.

market19%

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EUR/USD will trade below 1.1120 by November 9, 2026.

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