USO will close above $157.00 on at least one trading day by November 14, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-15 at 61% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-14.

USO is quoted at $153.56. The Bayesian Strait of Hormuz assessment assigns 67% escalation probability, but reports no closure. The thesis's contrarian oil signal is weak, and its $3.58 WTI quote cannot be treated as USO's price.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 14in 30d
Made: Oct 15

Price Target$157

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close at least 3.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation risk (67% Bayesian probability) keeps a geopolitical risk premium in crude (target above $153.35, 3.5% from $148.16 at creation)

market85%HIT

USO will close above $165.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%MISS

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%HIT

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USO will close above $157.00 on at least one trading day by November 14, 2026.

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