IWM will close below $272.80 on at least one trading day.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-21 at 63% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-04.
The quantitative layer's risk-off regime and elevated-volatility assessment favor pressure on small-cap equities; $272.80 is approximately 1.1% below the supplied $275.78 reference price.
- Probability
- 63%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Nov 4in 14d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.