Derived from the Bayesian Taiwan Strait assessment's 53% escalation probability and critical China–US coalition-fracture risk, against the thesis's risk-off market regime.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Nov 8in 14d
Made: Oct 25

Price Target$31.9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China will announce new export restrictions on rare earth minerals or critical materials targeting the US within 30 days.

geopolitical27%EXPIRED