USD/JPY will trade below 156.40 by November 2, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-03 at 61% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-02.

Derived from: the active risk-off thesis and elevated-volatility outlook, which may favor yen safe-haven demand. The assessment's conflicting market signals limit directional conviction. Reference rate: 157.83.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Nov 2in 20d
Made: Oct 3

Price Target$156.4

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/JPY will trade above 162.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold combined with the yen's repeated failure to sustain safe-haven strength (denied in two prior windows) extends dollar-yen upside.

market34%MISS

USD/JPY will trade above 160.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as yen safe-haven demand fails to materialize despite wartime risk-off conditions, continuing the pattern observed in the prior denied yen-strengthening prediction.

market32%MISS

USD/JPY will decline below 150.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as broad wartime risk-off flows and the 80% geopolitical escalation risk score drive safe-haven demand into the yen.

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USD/JPY will trade below 156.40 by November 2, 2026.

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