USD/JPY will trade below 156.80 by November 11, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-10-28 at 51% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-11-11.

The active thesis calls the regime risk-off, supporting a potential yen safe-haven move from the supplied 157.94 USD/JPY reference. The Fed hawkish-hold scenario could support the dollar instead, limiting conviction.

Probability

51%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Nov 11in 13d

Made

Oct 28

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.